The new mutant strain of Covid-19 is concerning and is likely to make the next few months particularly difficult. But here’s the good news: its emergence doesn’t necessarily mean that the government’s previous optimism about a spring return to normal is off the cards
During this Covid-19 outbreak, a common mistake has been to adopt a binary outlook: things are either good or bad, ‘getting better’ or ‘getting worse’. But pandemics are not linear – they are curves. Things can be getting better in the long term, but worse in the immediate short term. The events of the last few days are a good example. It’s worth then seeing the decision to ‘cancel Christmas’ and the imposition of Tier 4 rules in this wider context.
As for the next few months? They were always going to be bad: NHS capacity is stretched every winter, and increased social contact after the end of the second lockdown meant cases would inevitably start to rise.
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