Jamie Njoku-Goodwin Jamie Njoku-Goodwin

Why a spring return to normal might still be possible

(Getty images)

The new mutant strain of Covid-19 is concerning and is likely to make the next few months particularly difficult. But here’s the good news: its emergence doesn’t necessarily mean that the government’s previous optimism about a spring return to normal is off the cards

During this Covid-19 outbreak, a common mistake has been to adopt a binary outlook: things are either good or bad, ‘getting better’ or ‘getting worse’. But pandemics are not linear – they are curves. Things can be getting better in the long term, but worse in the immediate short term. The events of the last few days are a good example. It’s worth then seeing the decision to ‘cancel Christmas’ and the imposition of Tier 4 rules in this wider context.

As for the next few months? They were always going to be bad: NHS capacity is stretched every winter, and increased social contact after the end of the second lockdown meant cases would inevitably start to rise.

Comments

Join the debate for just $5 for 3 months

Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for $5.

Already a subscriber? Log in