David Cameron wants a ‘definitive’ victory in this referendum, one that will settle the question of Britain’s EU membership for a generation. But, increasingly, I doubt whether this referendum will resolve things for that long. A second referendum within a decade now looks likely, as I argue in the magazine this week.
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So, why do I think a second referendum looks likely if In wins? Well, leaving the EU used to be a relatively fringe position in British politics. Most Eurosceptics said that they wanted reform rather than for Britain to leave outright and there was no one in the Cabinet who openly backed getting out. But that has now changed. There are more than 130 Tory MPs campaigning for Brexit, including five cabinet ministers. It is more likely than not that one of these will be the next leader of the Tory party, and Prime Minister.
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