Why a Ramadan ceasefire in Gaza looks unlikely

Hopes for a temporary ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas during Ramadan were dashed over the weekend, when it became apparent that no such deal would be reached before the beginning of the holy month. Weeks of tough negotiations that raised optimistic speculations about a deal have so far produced no tangible results.

Hamas has hardened its position on a temporary ceasefire that would include the release of Israeli hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners. This came as no surprise to Israeli negotiators; Israel has been warning for weeks that Hamas is set to reject a deal while attempting to provoke violent clashes between Palestinians and Arab-Israelis, and Israeli security forces during Ramadan. Tensions run high in Israel during Ramadan every year. This year, the war could make things much worse.

Hamas hope that violent clashes, especially if they involve civilian casualties, would enrage the international community and increase pressure on Israel to stop the war.