Why a major war in the Middle East feels inevitable

Sun Tzu, the Chinese military strategist writing roughly 2,500 years ago, said that ‘Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.’ As we stand on the precipice of a truly frightening regional conflict, which pits a technologically advanced Israel and its allies against Iran and its allies in a war of asymmetry, this tension between strategy and tactics will be a crucial determinant of whether this war ever ends. 

We are in an escalatory spiral of tactical exchanges, with both sides aiming for that elusive sweet spot of striking a blow so forceful that it deters the other side from further action, but not so forceful that it provokes a regional war. And yet national pride demands that each tactical strike be bolder than the last, for deterrence’s sake. And all of this to the backdrop of (hollow) protestations that no one seeks a regional war. These tactics seem designed to ensure the continuation of the status quo, not in the service of a greater strategy of victory or peace.