Why a Labour super-majority is unlikely

In economics, there is a phenomenon known as ‘automatic stabilisers’, which kick in at the onset of a recession. Without politicians having to do anything, state spending on out-of-work benefits increases while the amount of money taken off private citizens in taxes decreases, thereby preventing the economy from going into freefall. Hence wild fluctuations in GDP are constrained.

We will shortly discover whether there is an automatic stabiliser in the UK electoral system. Most polls are indicating that Labour will go from the 202 seats they won in 2019, to more than 400 at the looming election. One poll this week even indicates that 500+ is on the cards for Keir Starmer’s party. Those same polls show that the Tories are, meanwhile, heading from the 365 seats of 2019 to fewer than 150.

This enormous switch-around is predicted despite Labour only polling an average 44 per cent vote share.