Who’s on top in the Tory leadership contest?

In recent years, the Conservative party conference has become something of an irrelevance. Often it is little more than a networking event, filled with dull speeches, all carefully stage-managed by No. 10. But next week’s gathering in Birmingham will be one of those rare Tory conferences that decide the party’s future.

The leadership race has gone on for so long that the conference will be a political talent contest, with the four remaining leadership candidates – Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly and Robert Jenrick – setting out their stalls. ‘We know each other’s lines so well now that we could imitate each other,’ says one leadership contestant. ‘There is definite growing regret that it’s taking so long,’ says a member of the shadow cabinet. ‘We were too indulgent to MPs who wanted to have a break over the summer.’

It was another mistake, perhaps, to give the instruction, for the sake of unity, that candidates shouldn’t land blows on each other. ‘We’ve literally been told one of the questions in the official conference Q and A could be “What are your favourite crisps?”’ complains a campaign member. Bob Blackman, the chairman of the 1922 committee, has brought in a ‘yellow card scheme’ whereby any blue-on-blue attacks will lead to public condemnation of those involved. ‘But we should be allowed to criticise each other, otherwise we are painting over the cracks,’ says one MP. ‘An opposition leader should be tested on their ability to oppose.’

Although the contest will drag on into November, the result could be obvious much sooner, once MPs choose the final two candidates. ‘It’s the most important week of the whole leadership campaign,’ explains a party old hand.

Tory MPs and party members view each other with growing suspicion. Many in Westminster worry that the membership has been reduced to a small cohort of ideologues whose priorities are out of sync with the rest of the country, while activists worry that the MPs are too caught up in their own feuds and power games to back the leader who is most likely to lead a successful general election campaign.