Who’s behind the Mordaunt plot?

There’s an old Russian joke about the difference between an optimist and a pessimist in Moscow. The pessimist believes that things cannot get any worse. The optimist replies: ‘Of course they could!’

These days the same joke could be made about the Tory party. As it slumps to its worst polling result since the dying days of Liz Truss’s leadership, MPs are debating which of two bad choices to make. Should they roll the leadership dice one more time or stick with Rishi Sunak and hope that for once his plan works?

So far, it’s not looking great. The Spring Budget fell flat, the party vice-chairman defected to Reform and an ongoing racism row involving the party’s largest donor has now revived talk of mutiny. ‘The mood has definitely shifted,’ says a member of the 2010 intake. ‘MPs are now seriously discussing the merits and demerits of switching leader. He’s not in the death zone yet though: there are some massive cons to it.’

The unhappiness isn’t confined to Sunak’s normal critics. ‘It’s not just the usual suspects,’ says a former cabinet minister. ‘I was stopped by two sensible MPs last week telling me I need to back Penny Mordaunt.’ No one thinks a new leader would save the Tories, but they hope to reduce the tsunami to a mere flood.

That so-called Mordaunt plot quickly splashed in the weekend papers. The rumour was that the right of the party was willing to row in behind her, should Sunak face a confidence vote. ‘Her seat is no sure thing and she’s already tried twice to be leader,’ says a cabinet colleague of Mordaunt’s possible motivations. ‘So she is in a hurry.’ Mordaunt – a naval reservist – has credibility with the Tory right because she pushed for an increase in defence spending.