Geoff Hill

Who will win South Africa’s election?

President of the African National Congress and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa (Getty Images)

From the start, it didn’t look good this time round for the African National Congress (ANC), which has ruled South Africa since Nelson Mandela came to power in the first democratic elections 30 years ago. Since mid-2023, polls for the ANC have ranged from 38 per cent to the high-40s, a long way down from the 57 per cent President Cyril Ramaphosa had won five years ago.


The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) says it will only have the full results by Sunday, given the unexpectedly high turnout. At the first national vote in 1994, a stunning 87 per cent took part, but in 2019 a third of those registered to vote stayed away. This time turnout has risen, though final figures are get to be released. As the count proceeded, the IEC released provisional numbers showing the ANC fluctuating around 43 per cent, well short of the 201 seats out of 400 that they need for a majority in a parliament of 400.

Written by
Geoff Hill

Geoff Hill is a Zimbabwean journalist and author of The Battle for Zimbabwe. His book of short stories, Pharaoh’s Bath, will be published in the new year.

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