Paul Ormerod

Who will rule the 21st century?

This is a nice big question to ponder on the holiday beach or in the rented villa. A vast amount has already been written on the rise of China and whether the US will be replaced as the global superpower. And where exactly does Europe fit into all this?

It is easy to make a case for American weakness. The twin deficits of the balance of payments and the massive public sector gap between expenditure and income, the increasingly divided and embittered nature of policy discourse in the country, growing cultural fragmentation.

The image of a divided nation appears to be supported by what has happened to the choice of baby names. This may seem rather trivial, but it is a very important aspect of the culture of a society. For linguist Steven Pinker, the choice of a name ‘connects us to society in a way that encapsulates the great contradiction in human social life: between the desire to fit in and the desire to be unique.’

In 1960, for example, the most popular name for girls was Mary in most US states, except for Susan in the north-west and north-east.

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