Who will Liz Truss send to political Siberia?

‘Whatever else you do, don’t step backwards,’ a man in the crowd shouts to Rishi Sunak as he stands on the edge of a swimming pool in the garden of a Tory councillor’s home in Bushey, Hertfordshire. About 100 party members have gathered to hear Sunak’s pitch. It’s the first of three stops he’s making before a hustings in Cheltenham. The leadership race will be decided by around 160,000 Tory members – and Sunak seems to be trying to meet as many of them as he can. On each visit he offers a version of his stump speech, including jokes about his height and how, unlike Boris Johnson, he looks as though his mother brushed his hair.

Every address he gives has a common theme: the economy. ‘We know inflation is the enemy, it makes everyone poorer,’ Sunak says. He positions himself as the candidate who tells people things they ‘don’t want to hear’. The implication is clear: he will speak the truth while Liz Truss will make promises she can’t keep. Her allies say his agenda lacks ambition and that she’s a woman of action – hence her pledge of tax cuts now.

Polls attest that Truss’s vision is more popular with members, but Sunak’s message is gaining traction in the southern ‘blue wall’. It seems to go down well in this prosperous small town on the outskirts of north London. ‘I think Liz will win but it’s a great shame,’ says Thomas, a pensioner. ‘I’ve got a credit card, you can’t put it all on the credit card.’ Another man tells me: ‘If she prioritises tax cuts for the well off, people won’t forget that.’

This is Truss’s challenge. The favourite to enter No. 10 next month, she faces a daunting first 100 days – to deliver tax cuts while guiding the country through crises in the cost of living and the NHS.