This is my scenario for how the last two days of the MPs’ stage of the Tory leadership ballot will play out – which of course by definition means none of it will happen (and the clever money probably bets against me).
Most of the 30 votes won by the defeated Brexiteer Dominic Raab will transfer to Johnson – with perhaps just a few going to Sajid Javid, following his loud commitment to take the UK out of the EU by 31 October, no ifs or buts.
So it will be touch and go who is knocked out today, Javid or Rory Stewart – because Stewart’s decision to cast himself in the BBC debate last night as the only ‘honest’ candidate, against four putative con artists, will have reinforced some Tories’ fears that he is too divisive a character. Then, on Thursday, 313 Tory MPs have to decide who they want to pit against Johnson in four weeks of intense campaigning and hustings to win a majority of the votes of more than 100,000 Tory members.
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