Who will be the next Tory leader? | 21 July 2017

Summer is finally here. Tory MPs, exhausted, relieved and nervous, can retreat to contemplation. One theory says that distance from Westminster will break the magic spell that holds Theresa May aloft: they’ll go away and realise that stumbling and mumbling into full-blown Brexit is just impossible, then come back in September and put an end to her. Some are citing the IDS precedent, when summer thoughts turned to autumn deeds.

But there’s a difference. Then, the party could agree on Michael Howard. Today, there is no Michael Howard figure: David Davis, Boris Johnson and Philip Hammond are all divisive and becoming more so: none has impressed colleagues in recent days; anger at their perceived antics means the share prices of the Big Three are all at historic lows, I reckon. To continue the market allegory, that’s meant a May rally based on a grim flight to quality. Even the lame Mrs May strikes a fair few MPs as a safer bet than the chaos that might follow an autumn regicide.