Who shot down the plane carrying Ukrainian PoWs?

It will prove to be a terrible and tragic irony if it turns out that Kyiv shot down a Russian transport aircraft today that was transporting Ukrainian prisoners of war ready to be exchanged. Around 11 a.m. local time this morning an Il-76 transport aircraft crashed in a fireball near the Russian village of Yablonova in the Belgorod Region, some 35 miles from the Russian-Ukrainian border. Everyone on board was killed. It appears that, perhaps alongside a military cargo, the plane was carrying 65 Ukrainian PoWs – if the claims of the Russian defence ministry are to be believed.

As is always the case in this war, multiple and contradictory explanations quickly emerged, often without any real evidence. Pro-Kyiv sources on social media claimed the plane had been shot down by the Russians’ own air defences. There had been a number of air alerts already in Belgorod and their assumption was that hasty and careless Russian gunners leapt to lethal conclusions.