Who’s Afraid of Marine Le Pen?

I suppose one should not be surprised that so much of the reaction to the first round of voting in the French presidential election has concentrated on Marine Le Pen. Fascists (or neo-fascists) are always good copy; far-right parties led by women are even better. Nevertheless, like so many other dramas there is less to this than might appear to be the case if you only read the headlines or listened to the BBC.

Granted, Le Pen and FN won 17.9% of the vote in last Sunday’s first round. But what of it? In 2002 Marine Le Pen’s father won 17.8%. If this is the National Front on the march it is taking a long time to get anywhere. Moreover, the circumstances for extremist parties are vastly more favourable now than they were a decade ago. Despite that the FN has made relatively little progress. Indeed, it has been stalled for more than 20 years: in 1988 Jean-Marie Le Pen took 14.4%