David Cameron’s promise of an EU referendum in 2013 was designed to head off the apparent challenge to his party’s election hopes that was being posed by Nigel Farage’s Ukip. Although Ukip still did well in the 2015 election, the Conservatives won an overall majority.
Unfortunately for Mr Cameron, he lost the subsequent referendum, and his party was then tossed into years of turmoil over how the decision to leave should be implemented.
Still, in 2019, Boris Johnson’s promise to deliver his ‘oven-ready’ Brexit deal headed off the threat from Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party and paved the way to another overall majority. Brexit was duly delivered and, it seemed, the issue that had given Mr Farage his platform on more than one occasion had finally been put to bed.
Yet Mr Farage has now popped up again. After finally securing election as an MP last year, he and his Reform party has now significantly outpolled the Conservatives in local elections that took place predominantly in what, until now, were Tory heartlands. And in so doing he has torn apart the coalition that delivered Boris Johnson victory in 2019.
Reform did best last Thursday in places that voted heavily for Brexit in 2016. In wards where more than 65 per cent voted Leave in 2016, Reform won on average 45 per cent of the vote. In contrast, in places where a majority backed Remain, only 19 per cent did so.
That does not necessarily mean that Brexit itself was the decisive issue for Reform voters, though doubtless some of them feel that, after delivering Brexit, the Conservatives made a mess of implementing it. But it does mean that Nigel Farage’s party is particularly appealing to those who share the outlook that is associated with backing Leave, including a concern about immigration, about cultural issues, and about Britain’s place in the world.
Meanwhile, where Reform did best it was the Conservatives above all who suffered. True, the Conservative vote fell heavily almost everywhere, given that four years ago, when the seats up for grabs this year were last contested, the party had put in a particularly strong performance.
However, in wards where Reform won less than 20 per cent of the vote, the Conservatives’ share fell on average by just 12 points compared with 2021. But in those wards where Reform won more than 45 per cent, Conservative support dropped by as much as 31 points. In contrast, the strength of Reform’s performance little difference to how much Labour’s vote fell.
In combination the two patterns had an inevitable consequence. Conservative support fell above all in places where, a decade ago, Brexit had been most popular and which four years ago had backed Boris Johnson at the zenith of his premiership.
In wards where a majority voted Remain in 2016, the fall in Conservative support averaged 15.5 points. In those where over 65 per cent backed Leave, the drop was, at 25.5 points, ten points bigger.
As a result and in contrast to four years ago, support for the Conservatives in the local elections was on average no higher in places that backed Brexit heavily than it was in those who supported Remain. The party won 21 per cent on average in places that backed Brexit heavily, and won 21 per cent in those that supported Remain.
The Conservatives still outpolled Reform, albeit narrowly, in Remain inclined Britain, while they were thoroughly outpaced in Leave backing Britain.
The demographic traces of the Johnson pro-Brexit coalition have been rubbed out too. In the 2016 referendum Brexit was backed most heavily by those with few, if any, qualifications, and was opposed by most university graduates. Yet now, Reform advanced most strongly – and Conservative support fell back most heavily – in wards with fewer graduates.
On claiming the leadership, Kemi Badenoch appeared to assume she had the four years to restore her party’s credibility and popularity in the eyes of the electorate. Mr Farage has now shortened that timetable. Reform have taken the guts out of the coalition of voters that last brought the Conservatives electoral success – and in so doing has made significant progress in his avowed aim of replacing the Conservatives as the principal party of the right in Britain.
Neither Mr Cameron nor Mr Johnson succeeded in landing a knock-out blow on Mr Farage. Ms Badenoch now badly needs to do so – and soon.
John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University, and Senior Fellow, National Centre for Social Research and ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’.
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