John Curtice

Who are the polls predicting will be the next leader of Scotland?

(Photo: Getty)

Voting for the next SNP leader has begun. But who will emerge as the winner is far from clear. Nearly all of the polling to date has been of the general public. Among them, Kate Forbes, Scotland’s finance secretary – whose candidacy got into hot water when she revealed she would have voted against the introduction of gay marriage if she had been an MSP in 2014 – is clearly ahead. In four polls conducted over the last week, including two after a rancorous televised debate, she has on average secured 30 per cent support when voters were asked who they would like as their next First Minister

That puts Forbes well ahead of Humza Yousaf, the current health secretary, who has secured the backing of most SNP MPs and MSPs and who is running at 20 per cent support; it also means she is beating Ash Regan, a former Scottish government junior minister who resigned over the controversial Gender Recognition Bill, who is on 10 per cent.

Written by
John Curtice

John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University, and Senior Research Fellow at NatCen Social Research and ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’.

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