Which way will Greece vote?

This time tomorrow, we’ll have had the first projections from the Greek referendum. We will have an idea as to whether the country has said Oxi or Nai. At the moment, the polls make the referendum too close to call.

Whatever the result, there’ll be no quick deal between Greece and its creditors. But if the Greeks vote Oxi, then the country could be forced out of the Euro by the ECB cutting off assistance to its banks. If that were to happen, then the Eurozone would have to move to integrate very quickly to prevent Portugal, Italy, Spain and even France being pushed towards the Euro exit the next time there’s a fiscal crisis.

This would almost certainly require a new EU treaty, which would provide Cameron with quite an opportunity. Armed with the British veto, Cameron would—as I argue in the magazine this week—suddenly have far more negotiating leverage for his EU renegotiation.