Which way will Egypt turn?

The world is full of jubilation this morning, and I wish I could join in. Perhaps we are indeed witnessing Egypt on its way to democracy, thereby inspiring a similar wave of uprisings in the Arab world. It’s not hard to be mesmerised by the prospect of the Arabs rejecting the dictators foisted on them by the West in the name of security, and choosing their own democratic future. The ‘Wind of Change’ narrative is one we in the West are familiar with, as memories of the 1989 revolutions are still fresh.
 
You can see the Egyptian events in two ways. Many – including, it seems, Barack Obama – view the revolution as being a success in itself: that the protesters wanted rid of Hosni Mubarak, he’s gone so it’s mission accomplished. And a genuine cause for real celebration. Obama, yesterday, spoke of a ‘democratic Egypt’ as if such an outcome were in the bag.