Steerpike Steerpike

Which Tory MPs could lose their seat?

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Nervy Tories in Westminster will be looking at today’s results and wondering what it means for them. Council contests are often fought on very different issues to those in a general election but there’s no doubt that local councils switching parties is bad news for the incumbent MPs there. Top Tories under threat include Dominic Raab, whose Esher constituency has seen the Liberal Democrats making gains on the local Elmbridge council. Sir Ed Davey’s party has undergone something of a resurgence in the south west of England, gaining Somerset council which suggests a major threat to incumbents like Marcus Fysh in Yeovil and Rebecca Pow in Taunton Deane. 

Elsewhere, Labour made some of its most impressive gains on Cumberland Council which encompasses three constituencies – Carlisle, Copeland and Workington which are represented by John Stevenson, Trudy Harrison and Mark Jenkinson. Workington in particular was seen as a key bellweather in the 2019 election, sparking the eponymous term ‘Workington man’ to describe a middle England Labour voter who enjoys rugby league. Red Wall seats that could switch back to Labour include Lia Nici’s Great Grimsby and Jill Mortimer’s Hartlepool while in Wigan, the Tory leader lost his seat as Keir Starmer’s party made further gains there – potential bad news for Leigh MP James Grundy

In the Midlands, the failure to take more than three seats on Sandwell council will be a worrying sign for West Bromwich MPs Nicola Richards and Shaun Bailey. The same will be true for nearby Wolverhampton backbenchers Stuart Anderson and Jane Stevenson, whose local council saw little difference from 2018, before the Tory landslide in which the pair won their seats off Labour. In Scotland too, results are still coming in but it looks as though the party’s six MPs there should all be fearing their future – including Scotland Secretary Alister Jack whose local Dumfries and Galloway council saw the SNP vote surge by 10 per cent.

London has very few Tory seats left for the Conservatives to lose but the Lib Dem gains across the capital in the south west suggests Stephen Hammond in Wimbledon will face a tough task next time, given his majority is just a mere 628 votes. Labour sources have been suggesting the party could pick up various seats across the south of the country, including Tom Hunt’s Ipswich constituency, Paul Bristow’s Peterborough seat and Jackie Doyle-Price’s Thurrock base. Others who might be sweating after last night’s results include Karl McCartney in Lincoln, Stephen McPartland in Stevenage and Robin Walker in Worcester.

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