The ministerial casualties from a 1997-style wipeout

It’s blue Monday today for Tory MPs as they read the findings of the Daily Telegraph’s mammoth new poll. The paper splashes today on a YouGov survey of 14,000 people – the biggest such poll since the 2019 election. It points to the Conservatives suffering an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour. It forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.

Every Red Wall seat won from Labour by Boris Johnson in 2019 will be lost, the poll indicates, and the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, will be one of 11 cabinet ministers to lose their seats. By comparison, ‘just’ seven cabinet members lost their seat in 1997 when there was the infamous ‘Portillo moment.’ Below are the full list of the at-risk ministers who could face such a scenario this time around:

1. Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Godalming and Ash
2. Grant Shapps, Defence Secretary, Welwyn Hatfield
3. Penny Mordaunt, Leader of the House, Portsmouth North
4. Alex Chalk, Justice Secretary, Cheltenham
5. Gillian Keegan, Education Secretary, Chichester
6. Lucy Frazer, Culture Secretary, Ely and East Cambridgeshire
7. Alister Jack, Scottish Secretary, Dumfries and Galloway
8. David TC Davies, Welsh Secretary, Monmouthshire
9. Simon Hart, Chief Whip, Caerfyrddin
10. Victoria Prentis, Attorney General, Banbury
11. Johnny Mercer, Minister for Veterans Affairs, Plymouth Moor