When Jeremy Hunt announced his ‘Autumn Statement for Growth’ last week, there was a slight problem: the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had actually revised down its growth forecasts. Apart from this year and the last year for the forecast, GDP gains are expected to be smaller than were predicted back in March. Yes, the government can still technically say it is making good on its pledge to ‘grow the economy’ — but best of luck to any minister who stands up and sincerely insists that 0.6 per cent or 0.7 per cent growth is something to boast about.
The OBR is not, of course, the only forecaster. There are plenty of independent bodies that try to put estimates on GDP, including the OECD, which released its latest Economic Outlook report this morning. Unfortunately for the Chancellor, these forecasts reflect the rather gloomy outlook of the OBR. Its forecast is slightly lower for this year than the OBR’s, predicting 0.5
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