What’s the worst that can happen for the Tories?

00:00 05:52

Katy Balls has narrated this article for you to listen to.

When Rishi Sunak stunned his cabinet colleagues by calling a snap election, they feared the worst. Fast forward a month and what they originally saw as the worst-case scenario now looks like quite a good result. At the time, losing the election but retaining 200 MPs seemed plausible. While the polls vary, the consistent theme now is that the Conservatives are on course for their worst defeat in history – and could end up with as few as 50 MPs. The campaign has been dominated by gaffes, from Sunak’s rain-drenched election announcement to the D-Day debacle. And this week, most damaging of all, the gambling scandal.

Five Tory figures (two of whom have been suspended as candidates) stand accused of using inside information to bet on the election date. One cabinet minister, Alister Jack, has boasted of winning more than £2,000 – though he later insisted the bet was placed before May, which was when Sunak’s team decided to take a gamble on polling day. Among the Prime Minister’s closest allies there a sense of betrayal about those colleagues whose instinct was to place bets. ‘We have been let down by friends,’ says one Sunak ally.

Candidates fear the whole debacle has highlighted one of Sunak’s great shortcomings: dithering. ‘The delay in withdrawing support for the candidates just adds to the sense Rishi is weak,’ says one candidate. Sunak’s team say they had to follow process and work around the Gambling Commission’s inquiry.