What you need to know ahead of tomorrow’s growth figures

By now, George Osborne will have seen tomorrow’s GDP figures and I suspect will be having a mid-afternoon whisky. Ed Balls will be warming up for his demands for a Plan B. “Austerity isn’t working,” he’ll say — and will doubtless tour TV studios with his usual bunch of dodgy assumptions which he hopes broadcasters won’t challenge. Here, as a counterweight, are a few facts and figures about austerity, how harsh it is, etc. — and the case for a Plan A+.

1. Where are the “deep, harsh” cuts? The Q2 GDP data will complete the economic picture for the first year of George Osborne’s time in the Treasury. But where are the cuts? The Treasury produces figures for current spending each month. Here they are below, in cash terms and adjusted for CPI inflation. It’s pretty clear that the “fast, deep” cuts Balls talks about do not exist. Osborne does intend to cut, but they are only now beginning to take effect.