What would happen if the Reform vote collapses?

The Tories’ double by-election loss on Friday has inevitably led to an internal party debate about strategy. While Keir Starmer’s Labour party won in both Kingswood and Wellingborough, the fact that the Reform party secured more than ten per cent of the vote in both seats is being taken as evidence from the right of the party that the government needs to be more conservative. The New Conservatives – largely made up of Red Wall MPs from the 2019 intake – have called on Rishi Sunak to respond by cutting tax, slashing legal migration and being prepared to leave the European Convention on Human Rights. Meanwhile, the One Nation Tories have sounded the alarm – with Damian Green suggesting any attempt to become the Reform party ‘seems politically disastrous to me’.

There are some in the party who take comfort that the Reform party has not managed to replicate the success of Ukip or even the Brexit party yet.