What would be the real cost of defending Taiwan?

It’s 2026 and China begins its invasion of Taiwan with an intense missile bombardment that in a few hours destroys most of the island’s navy and air force. The Chinese navy begins ferrying its main invasion force of tens of thousands of soldiers and equipment across the Taiwan Strait. But all is not lost. US submarines, bombers, and fighter jets, reinforced by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, rapidly cripple the Chinese fleet.

The People’s Liberation Army is defeated, and communist party rule in China destabilised, but victory for the US and its allies comes at an enormous cost. Chinese missiles destroy US bases in Japan and Guam; the US loses dozens of ships, including two aircraft carriers, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of servicemembers. Taiwan’s high-tech economy is devastated.

This is the most likely outcome of a war over Taiwan, according to military experts brought together by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) to war game an attempted Chinese invasion of the island.