The sense in Westminster this morning is that Theresa May will win tonight’s confidence vote. So, as is the way, the conversation has immediately moved on to what would be a good result for her.
Cabinet ministers are busy saying that a win is a win, whatever the margin. One points out to me that if she wins tonight, she’s PM for a year and ‘unassailable unless people want to have Corbyn as PM’. But I can’t help remembering how John Major set a floor for himself in the 1995 leadership contest without telling any of his political team. He needed 165 votes to win but resolved he’d go if he got 215 or less. In the end, he got 218.
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