What will Putin do next?

If you were Putin, what would you do? Predicting your adversary’s future moves requires putting yourself in his shoes. As Russia’s misadventure in Ukraine nears its first grim anniversary, we should ask ourselves how Putin sees the world, indeed – how we would see the world and what policy we would pursue if faced with a range of unpalatable options.

Option one. He could declare the war lost and withdraw. If I were Putin, I would not choose this option. Why? There is grave danger in admitting defeat. Russia was built on the myth of infallibility. While the hope of victory stays alive, the people will follow the Tsar. But no sooner will he back down then they will turn away from him because the Kremlin is no place for losers.

If I were Putin I’d tell myself that I am still popular. They thought they’d topple me – they don’t know our people.