What will Joe Biden do about North Korea?

Kim Jong-un marked the new year by treating North Koreans to several days of lengthy speeches followed by a display of North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities. Behind this show of power lies a truth that Jong-un and his country faces a series of unprecedented challenges this year. Sanctions continue to bite and, combined with the coronavirus pandemic, the North Korean economy remains paralysed. Yet this doesn’t mean the task for Joe Biden in dealing with a problem like North Korea will be easy: in fact, with domestic problems exacerbating, it will make Biden’s task even harder.

In 2018, the North Korean leader set out a ‘new strategic line’. In contrast to the byungjin policy of parallel nuclear and economic development – declared five years earlier – this would focus exclusively on domestic economic development. 2020, however, has dashed any hopes to bolster this line in 2021. The closure of the DPRK’s border with China last January cut economic flows with North Korea’s long-standing partner: trade with Beijing – accounting for approximately 90 per cent of North Korea’s economic flows – has declined by approximately 70 per cent over the past year.