Tonight, caucus-goers in Iowa will deliver their verdict on this year’s Republican candidates for President. Above are Nate Silver’s latest poll-based projections of the result, showing three candidates with a decent chance of victory: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum. Santorum, who has surged in Iowa over the past week following endorsements from influential social conservatives Bob Vander Plaats and Chuck Hurley, could win tonight despite not having led a single poll.
Which candidate prevails will depend largely on turnout. Like Obama four years ago, Paul’s hopes lie with those who would not usually vote in the Republican caucuses: Independents, Democrats and young people. But, also like Obama four years ago, his supporters seem to be the most enthusiastic. Santorum, on the other hand, might want to see caucus-goers restricted to hard core Republicans, as he leads among evangelicals, those who describe themselves as ‘very conservative’, and Tea Party supporters.
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