In the Thuringian city of Weimar, opposite the theatre where the National Assembly hashed out Germany’s constitution in 1918, stands the museum of the history of the Weimar Republic. ‘A spectre is rising in Europe – the spectre of populism,’ a plaque reads. ‘Forces long thought overcome seem to be returning to threaten the basis of democracy. The Weimar Republic and its neighbours knew the phenomenon only too well.’
It’s a warning that will be weighing on the mind of Friedrich Merz, the leader of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and the man who will probably become Germany’s next chancellor. The federal election this Sunday is the culmination of a messy and fraught campaign. Olaf Scholz, the left-wing Social Democratic party (SPD) chancellor, called the vote shortly before Christmas, seven months early. His hand was forced after his three-way governing coalition finally collapsed after nearly three years of infighting. The campaign has been punctuated by three mass attacks in two months – two of them designated as terror incidents – that have left ten dead and more than 340 injured in the cities of Magdeburg, Aschaffenburg and Munich. Since the alleged perpetrator of each attack was foreign-born (two are failed asylum seekers who successfully avoided deportation), the issue of migration has dominated.
But migration isn’t Germany’s only problem. There has been no economic growth since 2022; the number of unemployed Germans rose to 1.5 million last year; the cost of living is rising. Crime is at a 15-year high.
Germans are frustrated, anxious and increasingly poor. It is no surprise, then, as the country heads to the polls, that there is a deep distrust for establishment politicians.
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