A YouGov poll suggesting we could be heading for a hung parliament caused a furore in Westminster yesterday – but should we believe it? The Times defends the estimate in its leader this morning, saying that while it’s right to treat the poll with ‘scepticism’, it says ‘the figures are based on interviews with many thousands of people and (uses) sophisticated statistical techniques’. The results might be ‘surprising’, the paper concedes, but that’s ‘precisely why they need to be scrutinised’. Admittedly, there are a few ‘caveats’: ‘the model takes only a snapshot’ – and voters ‘can still change their minds’. But one thing is clear: ‘the direction of travel’. The Tories started the election campaign way ahead. Now, their lead in the polls has been slashed. And come June 9th, if Britain ends up with a hung parliament, it will be ‘a career-ending prospect for Mrs May’.
‘A gargantuan pinch of salt’ is needed when looking at the polls, says the Daily
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