Ministers and MPs are nervous about a mass influx of Romanian and Bulgarian migrants putting the benefit system under strain next year. But ministers should beware, and learn from the political mistakes of the past. The failure to predict the scale of post-2004 migration to the UK from the EU caused major political problems for the Labour government. The public were left with the impression that the government was not in control of immigration and that Labour were contemptuous of public views and that they were even deliberately misleading them.
The Conservatives have less to worry about on the second point – polling suggests the public broadly support them on immigration – but they have plenty to worry about on the first. People are fast losing confidence that the Coalition can deliver on their promises, and critical reports continue to highlight institutional and administrative failings in the immigration system.
In this context the
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