Sunak could learn from David Cameron

Our naturally centrist and establishment-minded Conservative prime minister trails Labour badly in the polls even though the electorate is at best lukewarm about the leader of the opposition.

Former Tory voters are drifting away, outraged about a perceived abandonment of sound Conservative principles and European interference in the immigration system. Economic austerity may have convinced financial markets that the PM is serious about rebuilding the battered public finances, but the tax rises and spending restraint involved are making popularity a stranger to him.

With the Commons in Christmas recess, a threat is growing on the Conservative right flank which will make the next election impossible to win unless it is dealt with decisively.

This is the political landscape facing Rishi Sunak as the year draws to a close. It is also a description of the political landscape that David Cameron faced exactly ten years ago.

The indispensable polling database kept by the former Lib Dem strategist Mark Pack reminds us that the final two opinion polls of 2012 both gave Labour a ten-point lead, by 43 to 33 with YouGov and 39 to 29 with Opinium.