I made it through the airport crush to Berlin at the beginning of last week to see how Germany is faring under Olaf Scholz, Angela Merkel’s tough-minded centre-left successor. Under Merkel, Germany was important because it was the key to EU decision-making, but towards the end of her chancellorship, the country slowed down, there was too little change and, as we now know, Merkel misjudged Vladimir Putin’s revanchist ambitions and thirst for personal glory. In talking to Scholz, I did not get the impression that he has any illusions about whom he is dealing with. He believes Putin had been quietly hatching his invasion plan for at least two years, and that while his original goal of occupying or dominating the whole of Ukraine has been thwarted, he is determined to hold on to everything he can of the country. Scholz has no expectation of an early ceasefire and is determined to support Ukraine for the long haul. Despite his historic Zeitenwende (turning point) speech to Germany’s parliament immediately following the invasion, Scholz understands why he is getting a bad rap in some quarters. There is growing nervousness about Russia’s advance and a belief that more help must be given to tilt the military balance in Ukraine’s favour. Expectations of what Germany can do are running high but the awful truth is that Germany’s armed forces and their equipment have been run down over many years. Scholz’s momentous €100 billion commitment to rebuild Germany’s military is going to happen, but not in time to meet Ukraine’s urgent needs.
There is another current misunderstanding about Germany. In talking to Putin, Scholz is not clinging on to that mixture of German guilt and fantasy that led his predecessors to mollify and indulge Putin.
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