Jo Swinson is right. Most of the gains that it’s worth her party aiming for would be made at the expense of the Conservatives. There are three reasons. First, glance at the 29 seats where the Liberal Democrats came second in 2017. Some 22 produced a ‘close’ result. Sixteen of these are held by the Tories, and only four by Labour. As my Times colleague Oliver Wright explains: ‘Even quite a dramatic swing from any of the other parties towards the Lib Dems could still reap very little reward.’
Secondly, Conservative and Lib Dem ideologies are not diametrically opposed. Anyone who’d even consider voting Tory would be fiercely resistant to Jeremy Corbyn. Lib Dems strike us, the Conservative–inclined, as comparatively harmless. So places where Tories abound tend to be susceptible to Lib Dem advances when Tory voters are fed up with their party.
But in this election there’s a third reason for Lib Dems to target Tory seats. By far the biggest impetus for switching to the Lib Dems will be what gave them huge gains at elections to the European Parliament: Remain. At least four million Tory voters in the European referendum voted to stay, and the Lib Dems are a beacon of Remain to which many such voters, including me, are drawn.
By contrast, Labour’s more equivocal stance should be enough to keep most Labour Remainers grumblingly reconciled. It’s us former-Tory Remainers who are on the turn. And pitching the Lib Dem appeal towards such voters may also help Lib Dems act as a spoiler for the Tories in seats where they face a serious challenge.
So what the hell are the Lib Dems up to in South West Hertfordshire? David Gauke — former chief secretary, former work and pensions secretary and former justice secretary in two Conservative governments — is brave, capable, consistent, liberal, loyal and personally pleasant; and he’s been widely respected at Westminster as the kind of steady and principled politician a prime minister can trust.
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