What Jenrick’s resignation means for Sunak’s premiership

Rishi Sunak used his appearance before the 1922 committee this evening to tell MPs – once again – that the choice facing them was ‘unite or die’. He argued that the only choice facing the Tory party was to get behind his Rwanda ‘Plan B’ or to lose to Labour. Alas that message appears to have held little to no sway with his former ally Robert Jenrick, who has this evening resigned from government. After rumours swirled this evening, Jenrick has confirmed he has stepped down from his post stating: ‘I cannot continue in my position when I have such strong disagreements with the direction of the Government’s policy on immigration.’

Jenrick has already been pretty vocal about his reservations over Sunak’s legal migration plans. This week, Sunak took the bulk of Jenrick’s suggestions on board in this area with his new five-point plan. However, Sunak’s Rwanda plan proved a bridge too far. Jenrick shared the view of his former boss Suella Braverman that Sunak needed to go further and ‘disapply’ the European convention on human rights. However, Sunak’s reason to MPs for not going that ‘one inch’ further is that the Rwandan government could have pulled the scheme entirely. Comments from the government tonight highlight their unease at the criticism they have received so far – when they want to be a part of the international community.

So, what does Jenrick’s resignation mean for Sunak politically? Jenrick was once one of Sunak’s closest allies – penning a decisive piece for Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign alongside Sunak and Oliver Dowden. The trio were at one point seen as the three musketeers on a path to greatness. Some say Jenrick was unhappy that the vacant role of Home Secretary went to James Cleverly rather than himself. He was previously seen as Sunak’s eyes and ears in the Home Office. However, it would be wrong to say this is all about positioning – as a minister up against the challenges on a day to day basis of migration, Jenrick has developed strong views. He is also close to Braverman, the pair are friends dating back to their university days.

Will further resignations now follow? The view in government tonight is that this is unlikely – or at least they hope so. Instead, the bigger problem is on the right of the party. These MPs felt after Braverman’s exit they did not have a voice in government – and then decided Jenrick might be that. Jenrick’s decision to quit now will send a signal that the ‘plan B’ does not cut muster – even if ERG veteran Bill Cash praised it at the 22’ meeting this evening. It means Sunak faces a revolt on the right. The worst this group could do is fire in no-confidence letters – but even in that worst case scenario for Sunak he would more than likely win the vote. However, the sense of Tory chaos and infighting (along with a failure to get the plan through the Commons) would only further hurt the Tories’ already dire electoral prospects.