A vote to leave the EU would cause economic Armageddon. We know because David Cameron and George Osborne have told us so, claiming that there is a wide consensus among economists on the matter. But what if – as now seems increasingly likely – we vote to remain but then have a recession anyway?
The Prime Minister and the Chancellor are very quick to quote economists when making the case for us to stay in the EU, saying we should listen to the experts. They would do well to listen to what the experts are saying about the chances of a recession. A Wall Street Journal survey in May put the chances of a recession in the next 12 months at 20 per cent. Over the past fortnight the probability has jerked upwards, with Barclays putting the risk at 30 per cent and J P Morgan at 36 per cent.
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