What if the Houthi airstrikes fail?

The curse of air power is that air strikes always capture the public’s attention. The praise that follows their tactical brilliance can quickly swing to disappointment that they have not proven to be a political panacea. This is the risk that comes with the US and UK air strikes on the Houthi forces currently attacking cargo ships in the Red Sea. It is why James Heappey (Minister for the Armed Forces) was cautious during his media round, rightly stating we should await the battle damage assessment (BDA) before declaring the mission a success.

The trouble is that BDA is a technical, military assessment of accuracy in mission execution – but the problem to be solved is political. The Saudis commenced significant air operations against the Houthis in 2015, expecting a quick, three-week campaign. That campaign evolved and continues today, although at a drastically reduced rate which speaks to its lack of strategic success.