There’s still plenty, I’m afraid, that needs to be said about the decision to send the Lockerie bomber back to Libya. But, since many people think that there was a determination, come what may and regardless of circumstances, to free him let’s begin by asking how matters might have unfolded if Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi had not contracted terminal prostate cancer. Would he now be in Scotland or in Libya?
Granted, this is a hypothetical but it may not be unreasonable to hazard that it might have gone like this:
1. The UK government and Libya would still have negotiated a Prisoner Transfer Agreement.
2. The Scottish government would still have sought to exclude Megrahi, or, specifically, anyone connected to the Lockerbie bombing from that agreement.
3. The wider interests of the UK-Libyan (and US-Libyan) relationship would have remained the same. Yes, there are some business concerns. More importantly, persuading Libya to abandon its WMD programme and become, however much we might find the notion grisly, a “partner” in anti-terrorism efforts, would have remained a) a considerable foreign policy success and b) remained a matter of some pressing interest.
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