Parliament is in deadlock over Brexit. So what can we expect in the coming days and weeks after the vote? These are the scenarios currently being war-gamed.
May’s deal passes
A political shock: Theresa May squeaks over the line after convincing Brexiteers that it was her deal or no Brexit — and Remainers that it was her deal or a no-deal Brexit. The DUP then rains on May’s parade. Seething over the backstop, it declares that the confidence and supply agreement is over for good. This scenario could involve delaying the initial vote in the hope this gives MPs time to come around.
It passes on a second vote
Theresa May’s deal fails to pass first time round by 50 votes. Insisting Nothing Has Changed, the Prime Minister flies to an EU council meeting the following day where she wins some ‘clarifications’ for wavering MPs. The markets start to get jittery about no deal and sterling falls. Nervous MPs begrudgingly vote the deal through. Ministers refer to this as the TARP method, in reference to the market panic which helped the US government push its 2008 bank bailout through Congress.
EEA membership
When the withdrawal agreement returns for a second vote, MPs add an amendment instructing the government to negotiate a Norway-style Brexit which would see the UK enter the EEA — the thinking being that this avoids the perils of the backstop. Remain-minded cabinet members support this safer option, as do a chunk of Tory MPs, Labour MPs and the DUP, because Northern Ireland would not be treated differently. May’s position becomes untenable as EEA membership means the continuation of freedom of movement: her one remaining Brexit red line.
Early election
The Prime Minister’s deal loses by more than 100 votes.
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