What does success look like in the local elections?

It’s local election week which means all parties are engaged in the great game of expectation management. Just over 8,000 seats in 230 unitary, metropolitan and district councils are up for grabs this time, with seven in ten voters in England able to cast their votes on Thursday. The last time these seats were contested was May 2019 – when Labour and the Tories both did poorly, polling just 28 per cent each. Jeremy Corbyn actually lost dozens of seats, becoming the least successful Opposition leader in 40 years. Theresa May was forced to quit three weeks later, having shed 1,300 councillors.

This time, the picture looks similarly bleak for the Tories – but much better for Labour. Under Keir Starmer, Labour have led in the polls for more than 500 days, with an Opinium survey for the Observer this weekend giving the party a commanding lead of 18-points. It suggested that roughly one in five Conservative voters in 2019 have switched their vote to Labour.