Rory Sutherland Rory Sutherland

What data does not tell us

issue 18 August 2018

In late 1973 the graduate admissions department at UC Berkeley discovered that for the forthcoming year it had awarded places to 44 per cent of male applicants and only 35 per cent of women. Concerned about possible lawsuits or bad publicity, they approached Peter Bickel, a professor of statistics, to analyse the data in more detail.

Looking for patterns of prejudice, Bickel broke down the data by university department. He was suddenly presented with a contradictory picture. Department data suggested Berkeley was mostly even-handed in admissions. Stranger still — though a minority of departments exhibited some gender bias, it was more likely to be a preference towards female candidates than the other way about.

Eh? How so? I mean a 44:35 ratio seems clear-cut, no? In total, of 8,442 men who had applied 3,741 were given a place; for women those figures were respectively 4,321 and a meagre 1,312. Prejudice, surely?

Yet among the largest six faculties, the results were as follows:

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