What can we expect from European politics in 2020?

As we enter the third decade of the 21st century, here is an overview of what to expect from European politics in 2020.

1. Brexit – or at least a ‘beta version’ of it – will happen

At the end of January, the UK will finally leave the EU, even if for the rest of 2020 it will continue to outsource its regulation-making capacity and trade policy to Brussels, in return for full EU market access. Boris Johnson has promised not to extend this transitional arrangement beyond 2020. A decision on that is due by the end of June.

There are two schools of thought as to what the UK will opt for. Some argue that there simply isn’t sufficient time to negotiate anything beyond a ‘bare bones’ trade agreement and that both sides will ultimately settle for that, with all its repercussions for industry.

Others think that while a deal to avoid tariffs and quotas is feasible, Boris will ultimately make major concessions, due to the damage industry would face from so-called ‘non-tariff barriers’ to trade.