What Boris must do now to survive

When Omicron struck, Britain was already the most boosted country in Europe. Our programme was so advanced that 80 per cent of pensioners were already triple-jabbed. This helped force the new variant into reverse in the first days of January, with hospitalisations half of the previous peak. A country whose economic recovery had already surpassed almost all expectations can now continue to grow — in contrast to many European countries still dragged down by restrictions and heavy-handed mandates.

In such circumstances, the Prime Minister might reasonably expect to be fêted. Instead Boris Johnson is fighting for his political life, unsure of when his mutinous Tory MPs might come for him. Sue Gray’s report is not the end of it: Johnson will now spend weeks under a police investigation into whether he and his Downing Street staff broke the lockdown rules they forced upon the rest of the country.

Each day brings fresh revelations. Headlines about birthday cakes may sound absurd, but it was the PM’s decision to outlaw such parties, indeed almost all forms of socialising. He sent the police after the public for having far smaller gatherings. He cannot complain now that he is held to account in the same way as thousands of others dragged through the courts for similar behaviour.

It’s not a question of how many such embarrassments the PM can endure. The cash-for-honours scandal let Tony Blair demonstrate just how long a prime minister can go on under criminal investigation. Johnson will stay until enough Tory MPs calculate that a putsch — exposing the party at its feuding, self-obsessed worst — would be better than letting him stay in power. It’s quite possible that the new intake of MPs, less versed in regicide than the others, will lead a botched attempt that leaves Johnson weakened but still in place.