What Arlene Foster’s ousting means for Northern Ireland – and the Union

The brutal defenestration of Arlene Foster as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party could have severe implications for an already volatile situation in Northern Ireland.

It is almost certain that whoever succeeds her will lack the instincts which saw the outgoing First Minister try initially to make the Protocol work. Instead, the mission seems to be to try and shore up the base and prevent the hard-line Traditional Unionist Voice doing to the DUP what the DUP did to David Trimble and the Ulster Unionists.

This is a grim prospect for London, Dublin, and Brussels, although it won’t hurt the former’s case that fundamental change is needed if the Protocol is to work. But it also raises broader questions about the future of unionism.

One of the tragedies of Foster’s leadership has been that she has squandered what looked like a strong opportunity to put the UK on the front foot. Unlike her predecessors who came up through the party’s Presbyterian tradition, she was an ex-Ulster Unionist who seemed more at ease with modern Britain and who might have tried to raise the DUP’s sights beyond simply holding on to its hegemonic position in its own community.

In addition, the historic conjunction of her leadership with the EU referendum, Theresa May’s premiership, and the 2017 election result gave Foster a golden opening to try and rebuild Ulster unionism’s connections to mainland politics.