What the ‘experts’ got wrong about Syria

Provincial capitals falling before an unexpected advance. Military units allegedly defecting, deserting or switching sides. Talk of a coup in Damascus. The Syria of 2012 is the Syria of 2024.

For years this was a so-called ‘frozen conflict’. The front lines did not move, no matter how many artillery and aerial attacks there were on civilians in the country’s north. The maps did not change, though dozens of people at a minimum were killed in fighting every week.

But now Syria’s civil conflict has reignited.

From their portion of Idlib province, a broad coalition of armed groups led by the Islamists Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have taken over a significant swathe of territory. This includes Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, its economic heart, and much of Aleppo’s surrounds; the rest of Idlib; and increasing numbers of towns and villages in Hama province.

Wild rumours talk of the imminent fall of Hama city (site of a famous uprising against Hafez al-Assad, the father of the current president, Bashar), and of a military coup in Damascus.