Theresa May has taken Westminster by surprise this morning by saying she wants an early election. Tomorrow she will ask MPs to support a motion for a poll on June 8. It is pretty much certain that this will pass — any opposition MP who rejects the motion is effectively saying they want another three years of Tory rule.
Tim Farron has been the first out of the starting blocks to say that his party welcomes an early election — heralding the Liberal Democrats as the only party that will fight for Britain to remain in the single market. So, what of Labour? Well, after a sluggish start Her Majesty’s Opposition have issued a statement. Jeremy Corbyn has said he ‘welcomes’ the Prime Minister’s ‘decision to give the British people the chance to vote for a government that will put the interests of the majority first’.
The reaction of Labour MPs is muted. For some it offers hope as a dismal showing will help hasten Corbyn’s departure. But for many others it represents the end of their career as a Parliamentarian. With current forecasting, Electoral Calculus predicts Labour could lose around 47 seats. Tom Blenkinsop, the MP for Middlesbrough South, has become the first Labour politician to say he will not stand for re-election. He probably won’t be the last:
https://twitter.com/TomBlenkinsop/status/854278057439506436
Blenkinsop — a known Corbyn critic — has more reason than the leadership to make him think twice about re-standing. The MP for Middlesbrough South has a majority just over 2,000 votes and the area voted strongly for Brexit, 65.5pc. It’s easy to see how the Conservatives could win the seat. This is the quandary facing many Labour MPs. In seats in traditional Labour heartlands, the party may pay the price for being at odds with its working class base.
Particular seats to keep an eye on include Chester — a city that voted for Brexit — where the Labour MP Chris Matheson won by just 93 votes in 2015. Other seats that look set to go include Halifax where Labour’s Holly Lynch won by just 428 votes and Newcastle-under-Lyme, where Labour has a majority of 650.
Labour will back the motion for an early election — but many MPs will do it knowing this will be their last.
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