So, the third wave is officially no more. New modelling by SPI-M, the government’s committee on modelling for pandemics, has, at a stroke, eradicated the predicted surge in new infections, hospital admissions and deaths which it had pencilled in for the autumn or winter as a result of lockdown being eased.
Previous modelling published in April suggested that we could end up with 20,000 in hospital — higher than during the first peak last April. Now the third wave is looking less like the swell off Newquay during an Atlantic storm and a little more like a ripple on the Serpentine. The central predictions for the next peak in hospitalisations, according to the three modelling groups that feed into SPI-M, are as follows: Imperial College London, 4,200; Warwick, 4,640; and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 5,700. All three estimates are based on stages three and four of the lockdown easing roadmap going ahead as planned.
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