Welsh independence faces an existential crisis

Wales has never embraced the notion of independence and perhaps never will. So it was unsurprising that YesCymru, a grassroots nationalist movement formed to support Scottish secession in 2014, was more or less irrelevant for the first five years of its existence. Its official launch in 2016 went without notice. Wales’ decision to follow England – not Scotland – in voting to leave the EU also complicated arguments for separation. And despite a march in 2019 through Merthyr Tydfil featuring celebrity guests, the group’s 2,000 members at the start of last year was a modest figure – signalling they had little hope, like Plaid Cymru, of winning popular support.

Then Covid came along, with constitutional fissures growing across the UK and Wales. It has spurred more than 15,000 people, each paying at least £2 a month, to join YesCymru over the last year. Such developments caused a steady earthquake across Welsh politics, propelling YesCymru from a nationalist fringe group to a relatively wealthy lobbying powerhouse.