WEB EXCLUSIVE: Will the special relationship prevail?

As the US presidential race gathers steam, Westminster is abuzz.  Like the Derby Trials, MPs across the political spectrum are watching their horses anxiously.  Some are seasoned observers.  They know the trainers and even the thoroughbreds themselves.  Others are more recent spectators, but with no less passion.  The outcome of the presidential election matters in Westminster, for the course of US policy certainly, but also for UK domestic politics.

As the US presidential race gathers steam, Westminster is abuzz.  Like the Derby Trials, MPs across the political spectrum are watching their horses anxiously.  Some are seasoned observers.  They know the trainers and even the thoroughbreds themselves.  Others are more recent spectators, but with no less passion.  The outcome of the presidential election matters in Westminster, for the course of US policy certainly, but also for UK domestic politics.  It matters too for the ‘special relationship’, but less so than one might think.  While politicians pick and choose their candidate, foreign office mandarins are working stealthily below the radar screen to ensure continuity in US relations, whoever wins in November.

So far, Gordon Brown has refused to speculate on the race: it’s ‘a matter for America’ the Prime Minister insists.  But Labour’s links with the Clintons, some 20 years old, remain a powerful force within his party.  A Clinton victory would be a welcome shot in the arm for Brown, a demonstration that the centre left remains viable at the polls.  Barack Obama also has a significant following amongst Labour MPs, but ties are less advanced.  Hillary’s supporters stress Obama’s lack of experience, particularly in foreign affairs.  The unmistakable message of change delivered by an Obama victory would also rankle with Downing Street.  Talk of change is one of Cameron’s most potent weapons, and Brown has yet to develop a convincing rebuttal.